The National Democratic Congress (NDC) could face a smaller parliamentary majority after the 2028 general elections, according to a new constituency-level projection by research firm Global InfoAnalytics.
The organisation’s first parliamentary seat projection for the next election estimates that the governing party could win 154 seats in the 276-member Parliament, compared with the 185 seats it secured in the 2024 elections.
The New Patriotic Party (NPP), meanwhile, is projected to increase its parliamentary representation from 88 seats to 100.
The model leaves 22 constituencies without a firm outcome. Twenty are classified as “not disclosed”, while two are considered toss-ups, meaning the contest in those areas remains uncertain.
The regional breakdown identifies the Eastern Region as having the highest number of undisclosed constituencies, with five. Ashanti follows with four, while the Western Region has three and the Upper East has two.
The two toss-up constituencies are located in the Ashanti and Bono regions.
Based on the model, the NDC is assigned 55.8 per cent of parliamentary seats, while the NPP accounts for 36.2 per cent. The undisclosed constituencies represent 7.2 per cent, with the toss-up seats accounting for 0.7 per cent.
Although the figures indicate a possible reduction in the NDC’s parliamentary strength, the party would still retain a majority if the projection materialises.
The findings are estimates from Global InfoAnalytics’ modelling exercise, not confirmed election results. Voter preferences and political developments could change before the next general election.
The projection also leaves a substantial number of constituencies unresolved, making the eventual parliamentary composition uncertain.
