Legal practitioner and analyst Martin Kpebu has argued that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) would struggle to recover from its 2024 electoral defeat in time to return to power in 2028.
Speaking on TV3’s The Keypoints on Saturday, October 10, 2026, Kpebu said the difference of about 1.6 million to 1.7 million votes would be difficult for the opposition party to overcome within four years.
“Four years is too soon for the NPP to come back to power. You cannot wipe out 1.6 to 1.7 million votes in four years. That was between JM and Dr Bawumia in 2024,” he said.
To support his argument, Kpebu pointed to the NDC’s recovery after Mahama lost the 2016 election by approximately 900,000 votes. He noted that Mahama reduced the margin in 2020 before winning the 2024 election.
“After losing in 2016 by about 900,000 votes, in 2020, Mahama halved it. And then he won in 2024,” he explained.
Kpebu also assessed the NDC’s performance in government, arguing that, at the time of his remarks, there was no major indication that voters would reject the party in 2028.
He questioned whether the NPP could close the electoral gap within a single election cycle, noting that two years of the NDC’s current administration had already passed.
“So the question for the NPP is: can you wipe out 1.7 million votes in four years? We have done two years of the NDC so far, and if a government is going to go, we would have known by now,” he said.
While acknowledging that fluctuations in global fuel prices continued to pressure the government, Kpebu suggested a major political shift could take longer to emerge.
He concluded that the NPP’s main opportunity to return to power could come in the 2032 general elections, saying, “The real fight will be in 2032.”
